What changes
Tradit pivots from "automated trading platform" to a probabilistic market intelligence layer, sold as a membership across three coordinated surfaces —Dashboard, MCP server and Alerts— powered by a single shared engine already built and running 24/7.
Tradit does not predict the market. It maps probabilities, names the drivers, declares invalidation conditions, and tracks its own calibration publicly.
Why now
Six months of research showed that alpha is not in the candles: 144 scripts in the largest experiment produced $-26 in pure trading PnL. The only consistent edge was cross-asset context and regime classification — exactly what the existing engine does best. The pivot is not a change of direction; it is the natural conclusion of the work.
Additionally: a 12-18 month window before MCP becomes table stakes in finance. Being early to the AI-native market creates a developer-trader audience with real switching costs.
What is the moat
- Probabilistic, not directive. We never say "BUY". We say "X has probability Y% under conditions Z, invalidated by W".
- Public Brier track record. Every published probability becomes a verifiable forecast. Impossible to fake; compounds over time.
- Honesty Receipts. When a card resolves incorrectly, we publish what failed. A counterintuitive trust mechanism.
- The Spread. For any event tracked by Kalshi/Polymarket, each Card carries the Tradit-vs-market spread. Structurally unique.
- MCP-first. "Connect your Claude to Tradit" — distribution before LSEG, Bloomberg, or FactSet ship public MCP tiers.
- Reasoning as content. Raw data is served by Alpha Vantage / FinancialDatasets. Tradit serves interpreted state. It consumes them, not competes.
What is under the hood
The Card is the atomic unit. A canonical JSON object with probability, drivers, invalidation, provenance and calibration. A single Card renders to a dashboard view, an MCP tool response, an alert payload, an editorial post. Same schema, different forms.
Market and pricing
USA primary, Europe secondary. Day-1 ICP: AI-native prosumer traders and devs. Free funnel · Dashboard $39/mo · MCP $149-249/mo · Pro $499-999/mo. Stripe + NowPayments dual-rail.
What's next
The next 4-8 weeks are the pre-paid-tier trust foundation: public calibration scoreboard, methodology on Substack, sample cards without auth, Brand Broadcast on X 3-5x per week. Without that groundwork, paid launches land in a vacuum.
→ Full vision document · → Research conclusions that justified the pivot